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Gangster Squad and Zero Dark Thirty Battle for Box Office Supremacy - By MovieTube

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 11-13 2013 By MovieTube

There are three new films opening in wide release this weekend by MovieTube: After being pushed back from last September, Warner Bros. finally releases 1930’s crime drama Gangster Squad starring Sean Penn, Ryan Gosling, Josh Brolin and Emma Stone. Oscar winning director Kathryn Bigelow follows up The Hurt Locker with Sony’s Zero Dark Thirty, based on the true story behind the decade long search for Osama Bin Laden and Open Road Films releases horror spoof A Haunted House  starring Marlon Wayans who also serves as co-writer. Gangster Squad should do well due to its cast especially since it has been a long time since Penn appeared in a mainstream tough guy kind of role. Zero Dark Thirty will likely gross more in its opening weekend than The Hurt Locker did in its entire run due to tremendous award season buzz, but do audiences really want to watch a film about the hunt for Bin Laden? Most war themed films centered on any aspect of the War on Terror have failed at the box office up until now. A Haunted House could over-perform due to the lack of comedies in the marketplace but after four Scary Movies and a fifth on the way, audiences may have become tired of the horror spoof genre. Based on my estimates the Top 10 will generate about $111.5 million over the weekend, up about 5.5% from last year when Universal’s Contraband and Beauty and the Beast 3D from Disney led the overall Top 10 to a total of $105.7 million.

Originally scheduled to be released last September, Warner Bros. finally releases R-rated mobster action flick Gangster Squad this weekend. Starring Ryan Gosling, Sean Penn, Josh Brolin and Emma Stone, the 1940’s set crime drama is a chronicle of the police officers who did whatever they had to do to keep East Coast Mafia members out of Los Angeles. Gosling and Stone bring enough star power on their own, but Brolin and Penn will certainly add to the mix. It has been quite a while since Penn (one of the most respected actors out there) has appeared in a mainstream movie and seeing him play real life criminal Mickey Cohen should pique the interest of moviegoers. Reviews for the film have been rather mixed with critics either loving the film or hating it, but this film seems like it will be a crowd pleaser no matter what critics say.

The film’s awareness is quite high because the film has been marketed for quite a while due to its original September release date. Generally when a film’s release gets pushed back (especially to January), it is a sign that it’s not very good, but that isn’t the case this time. The original trailer for the film which showed four gangsters firing machine guns through a movie screen into a crowded theatre was pulled after the tragic shooting at the Century 13 during a midnight showing of The Dark Knight Rises. Warner Bros. then ordered the film back into production so the potentially offensive scene could be reshot, causing the shift in the film’s release date. 

Gangster Squad has real break-through potential this weekend but while it might be the top choice for young men this weekend, the competition for adult audiences is quite fierce this weekend. Fellow new release (after a successful limited run) Zero Dark Thirty will serve as a major distraction as will Django Unchained and Les Miserables. Gangster flicks are also often a tough sell at the box office but Gangster Squad is a bit more action packed than your typical mobster film so it should play well with action lovers as well. Look for Gangster Squad to arrest about $22 million this weekend. 

After a very successful limited release, Zero Dark Thirty from Sony/Columbia expands wide into about 2400 theatres this weekend.  The R-rated war drama based on the ten years leading up to the death of Osama Bin Laden grossed a very impressive $2.7 million in only 60 theatres last weekend for a scorching hot per screen average of $44,933. The film is director Katherine Bigelow’s follow-up to Best Picture winner and fellow war drama The Hurt Locker. While that film was celebrated by critics, it didn’t perform at the box office and it is likely that Zero Dark Thirty will make more in its first wide weekend than The Hurt Locker made during its entire run at the box office. Of course, just because a film does very well in limited release, there is no guarantee that it will perform as well in wide release.

As per MovieTube | MovieTubeNow prediction, There are a few things that may get in the way of Zero Dark Thirty’s box office potential this weekend. There has been some controversy over the torture scenes in the film, but it shouldn’t be an overwhelming factor. The competition for adult audiences is particularly strong with new release Gangster Squad stealing away potential tickets sales along with all of the other films currently in theatres that are aimed at the over 25 audience. The biggest question mark is whether audiences will want to go see a film about the hunt for Bin Laden. Most modern based war films such as Green Zone and the aforementioned The Hurt Locker have all but tanked at the box office.

On the plus side, Zero Dark Thirty has received strong support from critics which should convince many moviegoers to go see it. Of course, The Hurt Locker had terrific reviews as well, but since its win at the Oscars, many people have seen the film that didn’t see it in theaters. The exposure that film has received over the last few years may have paved the way for Zero Dark Thirty to be the box office success that The Hurt Locker never was. The biggest boost the film will have this weekend is the tremendous amount of exposure it will receive after this year’s Oscar nominations are announced later this week. Expect Zero Dark Thirty to capture about $21 million this weekend. 

R-rated comedy spoof A Haunted House from Open Road Films stars Marlon Wayans alongside a motley crew of co-stars including Cedric the Entertainer, David Koechner and Nick Swardson. Wayans also co-wrote the movie which is a parody of mockumentary horror films like the Paranormal Activity flicks and The Last Exorcism. While the Wayans clan has a decent fanbase, they have just as many detractors. Another problem is that spoof films haven’t performed as well as they used to. This is also not a novel idea to spoof scare flicks after audiences have already been subjected to Scary Movie’s 1 through 4 and a fifth film in the series is being released this April. Distributor Open Road Films also doesn’t have that great of a track record at the box office with most of their films opening in the $10 million range. The R-rating will also restrict the underserved teenage audience that otherwise would’ve likely purchased a ticket this weekend. A Haunted House may over perform this weekend due to the lack of comedies in the marketplace at the moment and it may very well be embraced by the African-American audience as well. Look for A Haunted House to scare up about $12 million this weekend. 

To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.

Weekend Release Schedule, 2012 vs. 2011 By MovieTube

All debuting titles for the weekend are in red. 

JANUARY 11-13 2013

RANK	TITLE	GENRE	DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO	FILMGO’S PREDICTION
1	Gangster Squad	Crime Drama	Warner Bros.	$22.0M New
2	Zero Dark Thirty	Drama	Sony/Columbia	$21.0M New
3	Django Unchained	Drama	The Weinstein Co.	$12.8M -36%
4	A Haunted House	Comedy	Open Road Films	$12.0M New
5	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	Adventure	Warner Bros.	$10.0M -43%
6	Les Miserables	Musical	Universal	$9.6M -40%
7	Texas Chainsaw 3D	Horror	Lionsgate	$6.9M -68%
8	Parental Guidance	Comedy	20th Century Fox	$6.3M -35%
9	Jack Reacher	Action	Paramount	$5.7M -38%
10	This is 40	Comedy	Universal	$5.2M -38%

TOTAL $111.5M

JANUARY 13-15 2012

RANK	TITLE	GENRE	DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO	WEEKEND GROSS
1	Contraband	Action	Universal	$24.3M New
2	Beauty and the Beast 3D	Animated Musical	Disney	$17.8M New
3	Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol	Action	Paramount	$11,7N -41%
4	Joyful Noise	Comedy	Warner Bros.	$8.6M New
5	Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows	Action	Warner Bros.	$8.6M -37%
6	The Devil Inside	Horror	Paramount	$8.0M -76%
7	The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	Thriller/Suspense	Sony	$6.7M -41%
8	War Horse	Drama	Disney	$5.9M -32%
9	Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked	Comedy	20th Century Fox	$5.9M -38%
10	We Bought a Zoo	Drama	20th Century Fox	$5.6M -33%

TOTAL $105.7M

Based on my estimates for the weekend, total box office will be up about 5.5% from 2011. 

Preview of Films Opening Next Weekend

Predictions for the Weekend of January 18-21 2013 By MovieTubeNow

There are three new films opening in wide release during the four day holiday weekend of January 18-21: Mark Wahlberg uncovers a conspiracy involving co-star Russell Crowe in Broken City from distributor 20^th Century Fox, Arnold Schwarzenegger is back in his first starring role since vacating his role as “the Governator” in action flick The Last Stand from Lionsgate and Jessica Chastain deals with supernatural forces in horror flick Mama from Universal. Mark Wahlberg has a strong record at the box office and should be able to continue the trend with Broken City. The Last Stand will finally answer the question as to whether Arnold still has pull at the box office and Mama should open like your average horror flick somewhere in the low to mid-teens. All predictions below are for the four day weekend. 

TITLE	GENRE	DISTRIBUTOR	PREDICTION
Broken City	Drama	20th Century Fox	$21.0M
The Last Stand	Action	Lionsgate	$16.0M
Mama	Horror	Universal	$13.0M